Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 84%
Forecasters
31
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 13 hours ago
StaleNov 2, 23, 12:54 PM UTCJan 1, 70, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will climate change decimate humans before 2050?
Manifold MarketsWill the climate change activists "Last Generation" ("Letzte Generation") be classified as a criminal organization?
Manifold MarketsBy end of 2028, will AI be considered a bigger x risk than climate change by the general US population?
Manifold MarketsIndia meets its 2030 climate goals?
KalshiUS meets its climate goals?
KalshiEU meets its 2030 climate goals?
KalshiRules
If climate-based disasters, including their chain reactions (drought -> famine; sea level rises -> migration -> disease; etc.), cause a 10% reduction ("decimation") of humans by the close date this resolves YES.
- Otherwise NO after close.
- 10% reduction might mean any one or mix of factors:
- outright deaths
- decrease in fertility causing population decline w/in timeframe
- reduction in population replacement curves, over the global average
Open markets
Health & Medicine
POLYMARKETHantavirus pandemic in 2026?
- No-0.1pt97%
- Yes+0.1pt3%
- Total Vol
- $18.1M
- 24h Vol
- $22.1K
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No96%
- Yes+1.9pt4%
- Total Vol
- $1.9M
- 24h Vol
- $6K
KALSHIWhen will Intellia Therapeutics submit a BLA for Lonvo-z?
- before October+64.0pt98%
- before 2027+22.0pt98%
- before December+30.0pt98%
+3 more outcomes
POLYMARKETFDA approves skin cancer vaccine by which date?
- December 31,+6.0pt65%
- September+2.0pt41%
- June28%
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETNew pandemic in 2026?
- No+0.5pt94%
- Yes-0.5pt6%
- Total Vol
- $1.1M
- 24h Vol
- $1.8K
KALSHIMeasles cases in 2026?
- Above 300099%
- Above 4000-1.0pt96%
- Above 6000+1.0pt60%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1M
- 24h Vol
- Ebola pandemic in 2026?
- Will 3 mg THC beverages be federally legal to sell?
- Ebola pandemic in 2026?
- Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?
- FDA decision: Bepirovirsen by GlaxoSmithKline (in 2026)
- When will Heidi Overton be confirmed as Commissioner of the FDA?
- What will the average number of measles cases be during Trump's term?
- When will the FDA reclassify BPC-157 to Category 1?
- FDA decision: Saroglitazar by Zydus Therapeutics (in 2026)
- Will the FDA approve CagriSema?
- When will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?
- FDA decision: Ifinatamab Deruxtecan by Daiichi Sankyo (in 2026)
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will climate change decimate humans before 2070??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 84% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will climate change decimate humans before 2070? resolve?
- Will climate change decimate humans before 2070? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2070.
- How is Will climate change decimate humans before 2070? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: If climate-based disasters, including their chain reactions (drought -> famine; sea level rises -> migration -> disease; etc.), cause a 10% reduction ("decimation") of humans by the close date this resolves YES.