Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 78.5%
Forecasters
17
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 18 hours ago
StaleMar 29, 26, 1:32 AM UTCJan 1, 27, 2:31 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will any Democrat governor be charged with a felony by EoY 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Geoff Anders (Director at Leverage Research) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Howie Lempel (CEO at 80,000 Hours) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?
Manifold MarketsClavicular sentenced to prison?
PolymarketWho will be charged with a federal crime in 2026?
KalshiTom Lee charged by December 31?
PolymarketRules
Resolves YES if a felony charge is filed against Braden Eric Peters aka "Clavicular" in any U.S. court after March 28, 2026.
- Resolves NO on January 1, 2027 otherwise.
- The Arizona forgery/drug charges from February 2026 do not count, as they predate this market.
- Note that simply getting arrested does not count either.
Open markets
Crime & JusticePOLYMARKETTyler Robinson convicted of homicide?
- No+17.0pt65%
- Yes-17.0pt35%
- Total Vol
- $404K
- 24h Vol
- $15.4K
POLYMARKETTrump out as President before 2027?
- No94.1%
- Yes5.9%
- Total Vol
- $11.4M
- 24h Vol
- $7.9K
POLYMARKETLindsay Clancy convicted of murder by which date?
- 2027-2.0pt21%
- 20265%
- Total Vol
- $578.5K
- 24h Vol
- $6.6K
POLYMARKETAndrew Tate released from custody by which date?
- December 31-6.0pt13%
- July 31-0.1pt0%
- August 31-0.6pt0%
POLYMARKETMaduro Prison Time?
- No prison time+0.5pt42.2%
- 60++1.5pt38.2%
- 20–40-0.9pt8.8%
+2 more outcomes
POLYMARKETIran charges Hormuz fees by which date?
- December 31+1.5pt28%
- October 31-0.5pt12%
- September 30-0.5pt7%
+3 more outcomes
- Who will be arrested in 2026?
- Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?
- What will Brett Kavanaugh say during his Notre Dame Lecture?
- Who will be named in Epstein files released in 2026?
- Who will be charged with a federal crime in 2026?
- Nothing Ever Happens: 2026
- James Comey charges dropped by December 31?
- Tom Lee charged by December 31?
- Anthony Fauci charged by December 31?
- Will Yale settle with DOJ over Law School admissions?
- Andrew Tate Extradited to UK by which date?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Clavicular be charged with another felony??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 79% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Clavicular be charged with another felony? resolve?
- Will Clavicular be charged with another felony? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is Will Clavicular be charged with another felony? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves YES if a felony charge is filed against Braden Eric Peters aka "Clavicular" in any U.S. court after March 28, 2026.