Will Christian Affiliation in the United States Increase Over Five Years?
One-OffReligionSociety & Culture4yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 72.3%
Forecasters
96
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 22 hours ago
StaleApr 25, 26, 11:16 AM UTCDec 31, 30, 11:47 AM UTC
Trends
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Manifold MarketsRules
Recent polling suggests that the decline in religious affiliation in the US has stagnated.
- Will that trend reverse in the coming years? Resolves based on:
- Poll: Gallup--What is your religious preference — are you Protestant, Roman Catholic, Mormon, Jewish, Muslim, another religion or no religion? (see https://news.gallup.com/poll/1690/religion.aspx)
- Criteria: If the average Christian affiliation from 2026 through 2031, rounded to the nearest whole number, is larger than the average Christian affiliation from 2021 through 2025, then the market resolves YES.
- Otherwise, it resolves NO.
- The average from 2021 - 2025 is 66%.
