Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 99%
Forecasters
47
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 4 hours ago
StaleFeb 5, 25, 2:21 AM UTCDec 23, 32, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Rules
Background Asteroid 2024 YR4 was discovered on December 27, 2024, by NASA's ATLAS telescope in Chile.
- The asteroid is estimated to be between 40-90 meters in diameter.
- Current calculations indicate a potential impact date of December 22, 2032, with odds ranging from 1 in 77 to 1 in 83.
- The potential impact corridor spans South America, the Atlantic Ocean, Africa, the Arabian Sea, and South Asia.
- Resolution Criteria This market will resolve YES if Asteroid 2024 YR4 impacts Earth's surface or atmosphere on or around December 22, 2032.
- The market will resolve NO if:
Open markets
Latin America
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt52.5%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.8pt45.5%
- Renan Santos-0.3pt1%
+16 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $145.5M
- 24h Vol
- $739.2K
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place
- Flávio Bolsonaro-3.0pt84.3%
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva+4.8pt13.7%
- Renan Santos-0.5pt1%
+15 more outcomes
POLYMARKETTrump renames New Mexico to New America by which date?
- December 31-2.0pt9%
- September 30-1.0pt5%
- Total Vol
- $100K
- 24h Vol
- $65.6K
KALSHIBrazil Presidential election winner?
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-3.0pt51.4%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+3.0pt42.9%
- Jair Bolsonaro2.9%
+11 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $4M
POLYMARKETVenezuela leader end of 2026?
- Nicolás Maduro86.5%
- Delcy Rodríguez-3.0pt11.5%
- María Corina Machado+0.1pt1%
+13 more outcomes
POLYMARKETParaná Governor Election Winner
- Sergio Moro+2.5pt86%
- Sandro Alex-3.0pt14%
- Requião Filho-0.4pt0%
+6 more outcomes
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- Ceará Senate Election: 1st Place
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- Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Asteroid 2024 YR4 hit earth??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 99% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Asteroid 2024 YR4 hit earth? resolve?
- Will Asteroid 2024 YR4 hit earth? is scheduled to resolve on December 23, 2032.
- How is Will Asteroid 2024 YR4 hit earth? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Background Asteroid 2024 YR4 was discovered on December 27, 2024, by NASA's ATLAS telescope in Chile.