Current community forecast
Yes 96%
Forecasters
10
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 13 hours ago
StaleDec 17, 23, 11:59 PM UTCFeb 1, 30, 6:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Artemis 3 return to Earth with all of its crew alive?
Manifold MarketsWill Artemis 5 return to Earth with all of its crew alive?
Manifold MarketsArtemis III launches before 2030?
Manifold MarketsNASA's mission Artemis 3 to land the first woman and the next man on the Moon by the end of 2026?
FutuurWill 2026 be the hottest year ever?
KalshiWhich country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?
KalshiRules
This market closes when Artemis 4 returns to Earth (resolves YES), a member of its crew dies during the mission (resolves NO), or the mission is scrapped before T–0 (resolves N/A), whichever occurs first.
- Related markets:
- @/jks/will-artemis-2-return-to-earth-with
- @/jks/will-artemis-3-return-to-earth-with
- @/jks/will-artemis-4-return-to-earth-with (this question)
- @/jks/will-artemis-5-return-to-earth-with
Open markets
Space
POLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic+1.0pt89%
- OpenAI-1.8pt9%
- Google2%
+18 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $2.7M
- 24h Vol
- $121.9K
LIMITLESSSpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
- No56.5%
- Yes43.5%
- Total Vol
- $53.1K
- 24h Vol
- $53.1K
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic+0.5pt59.4%
- SpaceX-4.0pt38.5%
- OpenAI+0.1pt2.1%
+9 more outcomes
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028-2.0pt63%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-1.0pt51%
- Before May 1, 2027-1.0pt49%
+8 more outcomes
KALSHIHow many launches will SpaceX have in September?
- Above 8-6.0pt84%
- Above 9-21.0pt52%
- Above 10-16.0pt19%
+8 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETWill the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by which date?
- 2027-0.5pt67%
- June 30, 2027-0.5pt53%
- 2026+1.3pt6%
- Which company has the best AI model end of October?
- Third-best AI Lab end of September?
- Which company has the best AI Agent end of September?
- Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by which date?
- Will a new interstellar visitor be confirmed before 2027?
- Third-best AI Lab end of October?
- AI data center in space by which date?
- Which company has #1 AI model end of September? (Style Control On)
- Highest Grok score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Artemis 4 return to Earth with all of its crew alive??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 96% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Artemis 4 return to Earth with all of its crew alive? resolve?
- Will Artemis 4 return to Earth with all of its crew alive? is scheduled to resolve on February 1, 2030.
- How is Will Artemis 4 return to Earth with all of its crew alive? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This market closes when Artemis 4 returns to Earth (resolves YES), a member of its crew dies during the mission (resolves NO), or the mission is scrapped before T–0 (resolves N/A), whichever occurs first.