Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 72%
Forecasters
42
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 10 minutes ago
Feb 9, 23, 6:33 PM UTCFeb 10, 95, 12:00 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiRules
I often wonder this.
- The first person is the "Neil Armstrong" of Mars: the one who steps onto the planet first, is feted as the "first" etc. Resolves when they die or return to Earth.
- Close date updated to 2095-02-10 12:00 am
Open markets
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+18 more outcomes
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- 24h Vol
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LIMITLESSSpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
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+9 more outcomes
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- Before Apr 1, 2027-1.0pt51%
- Before May 1, 2027-1.0pt49%
+8 more outcomes
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- Total Vol
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the first person to land on Mars ever return to Earth??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 72% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Will the first person to land on Mars ever return to Earth? resolve?
- Will the first person to land on Mars ever return to Earth? is scheduled to resolve on February 10, 2095.
- How is Will the first person to land on Mars ever return to Earth? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: I often wonder this.