Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
H1 2029 30.2%Leader of 14 outcomes
Forecasters
15
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 18 hours ago
StaleFeb 9, 23, 4:43 PM UTCJan 2, 30, 5:59 AM UTC
Trends
0.5%
0.4%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Who will be the next person to land on the moon?
Manifold MarketsWill Blue Origin land on the moon before SpaceX?
KalshiWill China land men on the moon before the USA?
Manifold MarketsWill SpaceX land on the MOON by Dec 31st 2029?
Manifold MarketsSpaceX Starship manned flight to successfully land on the moon by the end of 2026?
FutuurWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
PolymarketRules
Resolves to the half of the year when the next person steps foot on the moon.
- I will resolve N/A if in 6 years no one has step foot on the moon and I'm still on manifold
Open markets
SpacePOLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic+1.0pt89%
- OpenAI-1.8pt9%
- Google2%
+18 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $2.7M
- 24h Vol
- $121.9K
LIMITLESSSpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
- No56.5%
- Yes43.5%
- Total Vol
- $53.1K
- 24h Vol
- $53.1K
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic+0.5pt59.4%
- SpaceX-4.0pt38.5%
- OpenAI+0.1pt2.1%
+9 more outcomes
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028-2.0pt63%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-1.0pt51%
- Before May 1, 2027-1.0pt49%
+8 more outcomes
KALSHIHow many launches will SpaceX have in September?
- Above 8-6.0pt84%
- Above 9-21.0pt52%
- Above 10-16.0pt19%
+8 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETWill the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by which date?
- 2027-0.5pt67%
- June 30, 2027-0.5pt53%
- 2026+1.3pt6%
- Which company has the best AI model end of October?
- Third-best AI Lab end of September?
- Which company has the best AI Agent end of September?
- Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by which date?
- Will a new interstellar visitor be confirmed before 2027?
- Third-best AI Lab end of October?
- AI data center in space by which date?
- Which company has #1 AI model end of September? (Style Control On)
- Highest Grok score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for When will the next person be to land on the moon??
- Manifold Markets prices H1 2029 at 30% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does When will the next person be to land on the moon? resolve?
- When will the next person be to land on the moon? is scheduled to resolve on January 2, 2030.
- How is When will the next person be to land on the moon? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves to the half of the year when the next person steps foot on the moon.