Will Any Top-8 Economy See Its Birthrate Rise 5% from Its Lowest post-2015 Point by 2025?
CommoditiesOne-OffChinaMacro & Economy
Manifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: Yes (94.4%)
Resolved: Sep 30, 2026, 6:45 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Aug 7, 2026, 9:17 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Probability Timeline
Yes94.4%
No5.599999999999994%
YesWon
NoLost
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KalshiRules
Top 8 Economies are fixed as US, China, Japan, Germany, India, UK, France, Canada.
- Live birth data as recorded here: https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/crude-birth-rate?tab=chart&time=2016..2021&country=DEU~USA~GBR~CAN~FRA~CHN~IND~JPN (or going direct to the UN data OWID currently uses; World Bank is a third back up, but any change must happen within one data set).
- Example: Canada's births per-1000 was at its lowest in 2019 at 9.74; if Canada's rate meets or exceeds 10.23 (9.74*1.05) in any year up to and including 2025, this market resolves yes.
- Only one of the countries needs to realize the increase, and it does not need to be sustained in following years (i.e. a one year spike to 10.25 in 2024, followed by a collapse to 9.69 in 2025 still resolves yes).
- Current low points that count (these could change with further declines by 2024): US (10.94); China (7.63); Japan (6.57); Germany (9.14); India (16.42); UK (10.08); France (10.50); Canada (9.74).
- Update 2026-01-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator will wait for a reputable/international source to corroborate any reported data before resolving the market.
