Will Sm metal (Western) spot price exceed 50 USD/kg on December 31, 2026?
CommoditiesYearlyMacro & EconomyChina2mo
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 22, 2026, 7:01 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastYes 56%
Forecasters
3
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 8 hours ago
StaleApr 8, 26, 2:23 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 5:00 AM UTC
Trends
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Manifold MarketsRules
This market resolves YES if Sm metal (Western) spot price exceeds 50 USD/kg on December 31, 2026.
- What is being measured: Samarium metal (Sm, 99%+ purity) spot price in the Western market (ex-China Western assessment), USD/kg, on or nearest to December 31, 2026.
- YES if: Western Sm metal spot price >= 50 USD/kg on December 31, 2026 NO if: Western Sm metal spot price < 50 USD/kg on December 31, 2026
- Resolution sources (priority order):
- Argus REE samarium metal — Western assessment
- Asian Metal — samarium metal Western or ex-China prices
