Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 5:41 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastYes 56.9%
Forecasters
1
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 5 minutes ago
Apr 8, 26, 2:23 PM UTCOct 31, 26, 4:00 AM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
This market resolves YES if Sm metal (Western) spot price exceeds 100 USD/kg on October 31, 2026.
- What is being measured: Samarium metal (Sm, 99%+ purity) spot price in the Western market (ex-China Western assessment), USD/kg, on or nearest to October 31, 2026.
- YES if: Western Sm metal spot price >= 100 USD/kg on October 31, 2026 NO if: Western Sm metal spot price < 100 USD/kg on October 31, 2026
- Resolution sources (priority order):
- Argus REE samarium metal — Western assessment
- Asian Metal — samarium metal Western or ex-China prices
