Will any OpenAI models be restricted to US in 2026?
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Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 74.5%
Forecasters
12
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 8 hours ago
StaleJun 13, 26, 1:34 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
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Manifold MarketsRules
This market asks whether OpenAI will release or operate a model that ends up gated to the United States — by geography, residency, or nationality — while being withheld from its normal international user base.
- "Restricted to US persons" is used loosely, for intent.
- The market does not turn on the formal legal definition (citizens, green-card holders, etc.).
- What matters is that a model is gated to the US / people in the US / US residents / US nationals by law or policy, and most of OpenAI's usual foreign user base cannot use it.
- Resolves YES if OpenAI releases or operates any model (via ChatGPT, the API, or any OpenAI product) that becomes subject to a US-only restriction through any of:
- Geography — available to users accessing from within the US but withheld from a substantial share of the countries OpenAI normally serves (UK, EU, Canada, Japan, India, Australia, Brazil, etc.).
