Will any LLM produce a reasonable poker simulation, as judged by Nate Silver, by the end of 2028?

Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for Will any LLM produce a reasonable poker simulation, as judged by Nate Silver, by the end of 2028??

Manifold Markets prices Yes at 55.4% as of October 28, 2026.

When does Will any LLM produce a reasonable poker simulation, as judged by Nate Silver, by the end of 2028? resolve?

Will any LLM produce a reasonable poker simulation, as judged by Nate Silver, by the end of 2028? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2028.

How is Will any LLM produce a reasonable poker simulation, as judged by Nate Silver, by the end of 2028? settled?

Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: https://open.substack.com/pub/natesilver/p/chatgpt-is-shockingly-bad-at-poker

Use this market in code or an AI agent

Free JSON for this market, no API key needed:

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KALSHI

Best AI at the end of 2026?

• Claude+0.9pt59.5%
• Gemini-0.9pt29.2%
• ChatGPT+1.0pt7.5%

+5 more outcomes

Total Vol

$15.7M

24h Vol

$139.1K

POLYMARKET

Which company has the best AI model end of October?

• Google+8.1pt97%
• Anthropic-6.0pt3%
• Alibaba-0.1pt0%

+18 more outcomes

KALSHI

When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?

• Before Apr 1, 202796.5%
• Before Mar 1, 202795%
• Before Feb 1, 2027-1.0pt93%

POLYMARKET

Anthropic IPO by which date?

• December 31,+1.6pt95%
• December 15,92%
• November 25,+4.0pt87%

+15 more outcomes

POLYMARKET

Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap

• $1.75–$2.0T+2.0pt31.7%
• $2.0–$2.25T+2.6pt23.8%
• $1.5–$1.75T-0.1pt16.8%

+7 more outcomes

POLYMARKET

Which company has best AI model end of 2026?

• Anthropic+2.0pt56.6%
• Google-0.5pt35.4%
• OpenAI+0.2pt6.1%

+12 more outcomes

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• Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by which date?
• How much will Anthropic raise in its IPO?
• Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
• Which bank will lead Anthropic's IPO?
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• Moonshot AI share of spend on Oct 28, 2026 (Vercel)