Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 58.4%
Forecasters
18
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 9 minutes ago
Sep 5, 26, 3:42 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
SSI public model released by which date?
PolymarketOpenAI's latest flagship public model unavailable through a Cursor subscription on December 31, 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Anthropic release a new frontier model before their IPO?
Manifold MarketsAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
KalshiWill Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?
PolymarketRules
Best means ECI (Epoch Capabilities Index) score for publicly available models available on the day of their IPO.
- The ECI score doesn't need to have been settled by IPO.
Open markets
Corporate ActionsKALSHIWill GameStop acquire eBay in 2026?
- No91%
- Yes+2.0pt9%
- Total Vol
- $3.2M
- 24h Vol
- $38.9K
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Mar 1, 202798%
- Before Apr 1, 202795%
- Before Jan 1, 202792%
+9 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.7M
- 24h Vol
- $23.5K
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+1.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,84%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $2.8M
POLYMARKETWill Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?
- Anthropic-1.7pt95%
- OpenAI+1.7pt5%
- Total Vol
- $358K
- 24h Vol
- $17.9K
POLYMARKETWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- ↑$1.25T+1.3pt100%
- ↑$1.1T+3.6pt100%
- ↑$1.0T+2.4pt100%
+10 more outcomes
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- $2.0–$2.25T-3.8pt23%
- $1.75–$2.0T+3.0pt22%
- $2.25–$2.5T-3.5pt18%
+7 more outcomes
- When will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Which companies will officially announce an IPO this year?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap (Middle Brackets)
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- IPOs before 2027?
- Who will successfully take over Warner Brothers?
- In which month will Anthropic IPO?
- Will California authorize an alternative wage or other qualifying relief from goat-herder wage and overtime obligations before Oct 1, 2026?
- Will Kraken's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Anthropic have the best public model when they IPO??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 58% as of September 11, 2026.
- When does Will Anthropic have the best public model when they IPO? resolve?
- Will Anthropic have the best public model when they IPO? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Will Anthropic have the best public model when they IPO? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Best means ECI (Epoch Capabilities Index) score for publicly available models available on the day of their IPO.