Current community forecast
No 60.2%
Forecasters
7
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingOct 6, 26, 4:59 PM UTCNov 6, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
Resolves YES if, between market creation and November 6, 2026 23:59 UTC, Anthropic announces the deprecation of any Claude model OTHER than claude-sonnet-4-5-20250929 (already deprecated on 2026-09-30).
- Oracle: Anthropic's official Model deprecations page: https://platform.claude.com/docs/en/about-claude/model-deprecations Counts as YES: - A new dated entry in the page's "Deprecation history" with an announcement date inside the window, OR - Any model's "Current state" in the Model status table changing from Active (or Legacy) to Deprecated during the window. - If the page lags, an official Anthropic email to developers or Anthropic announcement dated inside the window counts, provided it is later reflected on the page or reported by a credible outlet.
- I will check the page until November 9 before resolving.
- Does NOT count: - Setting a retirement date for claude-mythos-preview (it has been Deprecated since June 9, 2026). - Sonnet 4.5 actually retiring on Nov 30 (already announced). - Deprecations on partner platforms only (Amazon Bedrock, Google Cloud) that the Anthropic page does not list. - Moving a model to "Legacy" without deprecating it.
- Context (as of Oct 6, 2026): Active models include Haiku 4.5 (retirement "not sooner than October 15, 2026"), Opus 4.5 (not sooner than Nov 24, 2026), Opus 4.6, 4.7, 4.8, Sonnet 4.6, and the 5 / 5.5 families.
- Anthropic has said Claude Haiku 5.5 is coming "in the coming weeks." Past deprecation announcements: 2025-01-21, 2025-06-30, 2025-08-13, 2025-10-28, 2025-12-19, 2026-02-19, 2026-04-14, 2026-06-05, 2026-09-30.
