Will an AI agent autonomously discover and report a novel security vulnerability (assigned CVE) by end of 2026?
AIOne-Off3moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 95.5%
Forecasters
19
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 16 hours ago
StaleFeb 12, 26, 11:07 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 12:00 AM UTC
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PolymarketRules
Resolution Criteria
- Resolves YES if, before January 1, 2027, an AI agent is credited in a CVE report as having autonomously discovered a novel security vulnerability.
- Requirements:
- CVE number assigned
- AI discovered vulnerability through own analysis, not just assisted a human
- Real deployed system (not CTF or intentionally vulnerable app)
Open markets
AI
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- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $154.3K
- 24h Vol
- $116.6K
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- Claude+4.8pt60.8%
- ChatGPT+0.5pt25.5%
- Grok-3.4pt5.9%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $10.5M
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- December 31,-1.0pt90%
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- 2028+22.0pt62.2%
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- Claude+5.0pt80.4%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt12.2%
- Grok2.8%
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- $374.6K
- 24h Vol
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+2 more outcomes
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
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- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will an AI agent autonomously discover and report a novel security vulnerability (assigned CVE) by end of 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 96% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will an AI agent autonomously discover and report a novel security vulnerability (assigned CVE) by end of 2026? resolve?
- Will an AI agent autonomously discover and report a novel security vulnerability (assigned CVE) by end of 2026? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is Will an AI agent autonomously discover and report a novel security vulnerability (assigned CVE) by end of 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution Criteria