Current community forecast
No 93.6%
Forecasters
5
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 13 hours ago
StaleFeb 3, 26, 12:10 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will an autonomous agent resolve 90% of tasks on SWE-bench by 2027?
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PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if a G7 data protection authority (from Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the UK, or the US) issues a fine exceeding $100 million USD (or equivalent in local currency) against a major AI agent provider for autonomous agent privacy violations by December 31, 2026.
- "Major AI agent provider" includes companies with significant market presence in autonomous agent development or deployment (e.g., OpenAI, Anthropic, Google DeepMind, Meta, or similar tier companies).
- "Autonomous agent privacy violations" refers to breaches of data protection regulations (GDPR, CCPA, or equivalent) specifically related to how autonomous agents collect, process, or handle personal data.
- Resolution sources: Official announcements from G7 data protection authorities, regulatory databases (e.g., GDPR Enforcement Tracker), and verified news reports from major legal/regulatory publications.
- G7 data protection authorities committed in December 2025 to joint projects on privacy and technical issues linked to AI agents.
Open markets
AI
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+60.0pt71%
- claude-opus-5-max+1.0pt7%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $154.3K
- 24h Vol
- $116.6K
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+4.8pt60.8%
- ChatGPT+0.5pt25.5%
- Grok-3.4pt5.9%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $10.5M
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+1.0pt86%
- November 30,84%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+22.0pt62.2%
- 2027+11.0pt28.6%
- 2026+4.5pt9.2%
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+5.0pt80.4%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt12.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $374.6K
- 24h Vol
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-1.0pt66%
- 1490+-3.0pt51%
- 1500+-1.0pt30%
+2 more outcomes
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will a G7 data authority fine a major AI agent provider over $100M for autonomous agent privacy violations?
- Manifold Markets prices No at 94% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will a G7 data authority fine a major AI agent provider over $100M for autonomous agent privacy violations resolve?
- Will a G7 data authority fine a major AI agent provider over $100M for autonomous agent privacy violations is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Will a G7 data authority fine a major AI agent provider over $100M for autonomous agent privacy violations settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria