Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 67.1%
Forecasters
28
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 7 hours ago
StaleDec 28, 24, 1:59 AM UTCJan 1, 50, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will All Diseases and Aging be Effectively Cured by 2040?
Manifold MarketsWill All Diseases and Aging be Effectively Cured by 2075?
Manifold MarketsWill All Diseases and Aging be Effectively Cured by 2100?
Manifold MarketsWill CDC cut the childhood vaccine schedule below 11 diseases in 2026?
KalshiWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
KalshiWhen will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?
KalshiRules
Explanation:
- Effectively Cure in this context means that you will not die from diseases or aging.
- Resolution Criteria:
- This market resolves as YES if CDC WONDER database shows both of the following for the United States before January 1, 2050:
- Total annual mortality rate drops to 0.05% or below
- This pattern holds across ALL age groups: between age 30 and age 84.
