Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 84%
Forecasters
13
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 13 hours ago
StaleDec 28, 24, 1:57 AM UTCJan 1, 40, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will All Diseases and Aging be Effectively Cured by 2045?
Manifold MarketsIn What Year Will All Diseases and Aging be Effectively Cured?
Manifold MarketsWill All Diseases and Aging be Effectively Cured by 2050?
Manifold MarketsWill CDC cut the childhood vaccine schedule below 11 diseases in 2026?
KalshiEbola pandemic in 2026?
PolymarketHantavirus pandemic in 2026?
PolymarketRules
Explanation:
- Effectively Cure in this context means that you will not die from diseases or aging.
- Resolution Criteria:
- This market resolves as YES if CDC WONDER database shows both of the following for the United States before January 1, 2040:
- Total annual mortality rate drops to 0.05% or below
- This pattern holds across ALL age groups: between age 30 and age 84.
Open markets
Health & MedicinePOLYMARKETHantavirus pandemic in 2026?
- No-0.1pt97%
- Yes+0.1pt3%
- Total Vol
- $18.1M
- 24h Vol
- $22.1K
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No96%
- Yes+1.9pt4%
- Total Vol
- $1.9M
- 24h Vol
- $6K
KALSHIWhen will Intellia Therapeutics submit a BLA for Lonvo-z?
- before October+64.0pt98%
- before 2027+22.0pt98%
- before December+30.0pt98%
+3 more outcomes
POLYMARKETFDA approves skin cancer vaccine by which date?
- December 31,+6.0pt65%
- September+2.0pt41%
- June28%
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETNew pandemic in 2026?
- No+0.5pt94%
- Yes-0.5pt6%
- Total Vol
- $1.1M
- 24h Vol
- $1.8K
KALSHIMeasles cases in 2026?
- Above 300099%
- Above 4000-1.0pt96%
- Above 6000+1.0pt60%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1M
- 24h Vol
- Ebola pandemic in 2026?
- Will 3 mg THC beverages be federally legal to sell?
- Ebola pandemic in 2026?
- Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?
- FDA decision: Bepirovirsen by GlaxoSmithKline (in 2026)
- When will Heidi Overton be confirmed as Commissioner of the FDA?
- What will the average number of measles cases be during Trump's term?
- When will the FDA reclassify BPC-157 to Category 1?
- FDA decision: Saroglitazar by Zydus Therapeutics (in 2026)
- Will the FDA approve CagriSema?
- When will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?
- FDA decision: Ifinatamab Deruxtecan by Daiichi Sankyo (in 2026)
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will All Diseases and Aging be Effectively Cured by 2040??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 84% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will All Diseases and Aging be Effectively Cured by 2040? resolve?
- Will All Diseases and Aging be Effectively Cured by 2040? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2040.
- How is Will All Diseases and Aging be Effectively Cured by 2040? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Explanation: