Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 78.5%
No 78.5%Forecasters
57
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingMay 25, 23, 5:47 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
Lately it seems like there's been a bunch of people taking big AI risks seriously, from OpenAI's Governance of superintelligence to Deepmind's Model evaluation for extreme risks.
- We're not quite there yet in terms of my standards for safety, and even less there in terms of e.g. Eliezer Yudkowsky's.
- However I wonder if this marks a turning point.
- Obviously this is a very subjective question, so I am warning you ahead of time that it is going to resolve in opinionated ways.
- Trying to anchor the discussion, I expect the following to be necessary for a YES resolution:
- Major leading AI companies openly acknowledge that existential risk is a possibility, not just in a marginal sense (e.g. internal discussion of it by employees, rare cases where the leaders begrudgingly admit it) but also in a central sense (e.g. openly having research teams working on it, having long sections of documents for politicians discussing it).
