Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastAI research completely automated by April 2028 45%
Forecasters
11
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multiple choice
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Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
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0.0 pts
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Updated 9 hours ago
StaleMar 31, 26, 3:47 AM UTCMar 31, 28, 3:40 AM UTC
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KalshiRules
Eliezer Yudkowsky retweeted @deredleritt3r's summary of the state of AI research:
- You don't truly understand the magnitude of the potential impact of powerful AI on the world unless you are aware, and have fully internalized, that senior leadership and most researchers at the frontier labs actually believe the following:
- Existing AI is already significantly speeding up AI research.
- Very soon (this year), AI will very likely take over ALL aspects of AI research other than generation of novel research ideas.
- Soon (within the next 2 years), AI will very likely take over ALL aspects of AI research, period.
- This means hundreds of thousands of GPUs working 24/7 to discover novel ideas at the level of, or better than, the likes of Alec Radford, Ilya Sutskever, etc.