Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 89.4%
Forecasters
25
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 8 hours ago
StaleNov 1, 25, 2:40 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will there be any scientific discovery in 2026 that will increase penis size?
Manifold MarketsAnthropic Reports “Major Scientific Discovery” before IPO?
Manifold MarketsSOAI#3: Open-ended agents make a meaningful scientific discovery end-to-end (hypothesis, expt, iteration, paper).
Manifold MarketsTop AI model in September?
KalshiBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketRules
At EOY 2026 I will ask @Bayesian , @TimothyJohnson5c16 , @Joshua , @Ziddletwix , and @nikki whether they believe it has.
- If after a week any disagree this question will resolve NO.
- Otherwise, it will resolve YES.
- If any of the users is unreachable, they will not be taken into account for the resolution.
Open markets
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $157.2K
- 24h Vol
- $119.4K
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+10.0pt60%
- 2027+2.0pt31.4%
- 2026+2.0pt8.6%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.7pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $10.6M
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-4.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $377.7K
- 24h Vol
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.5pt23%
+2 more outcomes
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will AI make an unambiguously novel scientific discovery in 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 89% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will AI make an unambiguously novel scientific discovery in 2026? resolve?
- Will AI make an unambiguously novel scientific discovery in 2026? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Will AI make an unambiguously novel scientific discovery in 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: At EOY 2026 I will ask @Bayesian , @TimothyJohnson5c16 , @Joshua , @Ziddletwix , and @nikki whether they believe it has.