Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 68%
Forecasters
2
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 6 hours ago
StaleSep 6, 26, 7:26 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will AI make an unambiguously novel scientific discovery in 2026?
Manifold MarketsSOAI#3: Open-ended agents make a meaningful scientific discovery end-to-end (hypothesis, expt, iteration, paper).
Manifold MarketsWill there be any scientific discovery in 2026 that will increase penis size?
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KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
PolymarketRules
An AI journalist recently claimed that Anthropic will release a SOTA model ahead of its IPO, with the “story built around a major scientific discovery”.
- https://www.reddit.com/r/singularity/s/AoZ7CBvZcq
- [image]Resolves yes if this actually happens (the scientific discovery, regardless of whether a new model is released).
- My criteria is that this discovery (whichever field of science it applies to) must be generally considered equally or more significant than any of the Claude mathematical results Anthropic and Anthropic employees have already reported on.
- If it appears too close to tell, I will err on resolving yes.
- If multiple discoveries are reported, I will judge the most impressive one.
Open markets
Corporate ActionsPOLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,-1.0pt86%
- November 30,-0.5pt85%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $2.7M
- 24h Vol
- $98.9K
KALSHIBoeing commercial airplane deliveries in 2026
- Above 56095%
- Above 580-1.0pt90%
- Above 60086%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $214.9K
- 24h Vol
- $48.6K
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028+2.0pt67%
- Before Apr 1, 2027+1.0pt51%
- Before May 1, 2027-1.0pt49%
+8 more outcomes
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic+0.1pt59.4%
- SpaceX-4.0pt38.5%
- OpenAI+0.3pt2.1%
+9 more outcomes
POLYMARKETIsrael Election: Zionist Home & Yashar Run on Same List?
- Yes+49.5pt99%
- No-49.5pt1%
- Total Vol
- $24.7K
- 24h Vol
- $23.6K
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+5.0pt97%
- Before Jan 1, 2027+1.0pt96%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-1.0pt94%
+9 more outcomes
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Will GameStop acquire eBay in 2026?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will GameStop acquire eBay?
- Which companies will be acquired before 2027?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- In which month will Anthropic IPO?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Anthropic Reports “Major Scientific Discovery” before IPO??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 68% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Anthropic Reports “Major Scientific Discovery” before IPO? resolve?
- Anthropic Reports “Major Scientific Discovery” before IPO? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Anthropic Reports “Major Scientific Discovery” before IPO? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: An AI journalist recently claimed that Anthropic will release a SOTA model ahead of its IPO, with the “story built around a major scientific discovery”.