Current community forecast
Yes 59.4%
Forecasters
20
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 16 hours ago
StaleJan 17, 24, 6:47 PM UTCMar 1, 29, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
Resolves as YES if at least 500 thousand humanoid robots have been manufactured before January 1st 2029.
- Different number of robots:
- @/RemNi/will-2k-humanoid-robots-be-manufact
- @/RemNi/will-5k-humanoid-robots-be-manufact
- @/RemNi/will-10k-humanoid-robots-be-manufac
- @/RemNi/will-20k-humanoid-robots-be-manufac
Open markets
AI
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+8.0pt56.5%
- 2027+3.5pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Total Vol
- $261.2K
- 24h Vol
- $186.6K
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,-1.0pt84%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $401K
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+4.4pt62.4%
- ChatGPT-1.2pt23.8%
- Grok-2.6pt5.9%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $10.6M
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-8.0pt63%
- 1490+-8.5pt54%
- 1500+-0.5pt28%
+2 more outcomes
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will 500K humanoid robots be manufactured before 2029??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 59% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will 500K humanoid robots be manufactured before 2029? resolve?
- Will 500K humanoid robots be manufactured before 2029? is scheduled to resolve on March 1, 2029.
- How is Will 500K humanoid robots be manufactured before 2029? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves as YES if at least 500 thousand humanoid robots have been manufactured before January 1st 2029.