Current community forecast
Yes 63.9%
Forecasters
3
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingJan 2, 24, 7:01 PM UTCJan 1, 00, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
Market resolves YES if, at any time before 2100, more than a year (365 days) passes between an AI becoming available to some part of the public (e.g. even if only some companies can buy access to it that still counts) and the widespread agreement that it is sentient (in the sense of having qualia).
- It resolves NO if no such thing occurs before 2100, or if a sufficiently complete theory of consciousness conclusively shows that it hasn't/won't happen.
- By "widespread agreement", I mean roughly the agreement that we have that cats are sentient.
- For example, this poll of philosophers shows that 88.55% "accept" or "lean to" the proposition that some cats are conscious.
- I'll try to conduct some polls before the official channels do, if it proves necessary.
