Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastAlina Chan 80%Leader of 18 outcomes
Forecasters
21
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 11 hours ago
StaleMar 15, 25, 9:40 PM UTCMar 16, 30, 6:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the COVID lab leak theory be proven by 2027?
Manifold MarketsIn December of 2026, will Wikipedia ascribe higher credence to the lab leak theory than it did in December of 2023?
Manifold MarketsWill my resolution of the COVID-19 lab leak market be controversial?
Manifold MarketsNew COVID variant of concern before 2027?
PolymarketHantavirus pandemic in 2026?
PolymarketMeasles cases in 2026?
KalshiRules
Covid's origin has been debated for 5 years now, with the most popular theories being a natural spillover from wildlife or some kind of laboratory accident.
- Many people have strong opinions on this question, from scientists to pundits.
- This question seeks to answer how those opinions will change, after another 5 years have passed.
- At the resolution date, I will search for the most recent statement from each person listed.
- If they say that a lab origin is more likely, I will resolve that name to yes.
- If they say that zoonosis is more likely, I will resolve that name to no.
Open markets
Health & MedicinePOLYMARKETHantavirus pandemic in 2026?
- No97%
- Yes3%
- Total Vol
- $18.1M
- 24h Vol
- $23.7K
POLYMARKETNew pandemic in 2026?
- No94.1%
- Yes5.9%
- Total Vol
- $1.1M
- 24h Vol
- $4.9K
KALSHIMedtronic cardiovascular growth in Q2
- Above 8%92%
- Above 9%81%
- Above 11.5%53%
+6 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $3K
- 24h Vol
- $3K
POLYMARKETMeasles cases in U.S. in 2026?
- ↑3.5k+0.1pt100%
- ↑500+0.1pt100%
- ↑1k+0.1pt100%
+9 more outcomes
KALSHIMeasles cases in 2026?
- Above 300099%
- Above 400097%
- Above 6000+2.0pt61%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1M
- 24h Vol
- $2K
KALSHIPandemic in 2026?
- No95%
- Yes5%
- Total Vol
- $712K
- 24h Vol
- $1.3K
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Who will support a lab leak theory of Covid's origin, in 2030??
- Manifold Markets prices Alina Chan at 80% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Who will support a lab leak theory of Covid's origin, in 2030? resolve?
- Who will support a lab leak theory of Covid's origin, in 2030? is scheduled to resolve on March 16, 2030.
- How is Who will support a lab leak theory of Covid's origin, in 2030? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Covid's origin has been debated for 5 years now, with the most popular theories being a natural spillover from wildlife or some kind of laboratory accident.