Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastAlina Chan 80%Leader of 18 outcomes
Forecasters
21
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 7 hours ago
StaleMar 15, 25, 9:40 PM UTCMar 16, 30, 6:59 AM UTC
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Wikipedia endorse the lab-leak theory for origins of COVID-19 before 2030?
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Manifold MarketsIn December of 2026, will Wikipedia ascribe higher credence to the lab leak theory than it did in December of 2023?
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PolymarketAnthropic lab leak by which date?
LimitlessRules
Covid's origin has been debated for 5 years now, with the most popular theories being a natural spillover from wildlife or some kind of laboratory accident.
- Many people have strong opinions on this question, from scientists to pundits.
- This question seeks to answer how those opinions will change, after another 5 years have passed.
- At the resolution date, I will search for the most recent statement from each person listed.
- If they say that a lab origin is more likely, I will resolve that name to yes.
- If they say that zoonosis is more likely, I will resolve that name to no.
