Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 21, 2026, 4:21 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecast
Nobody (linked market resolves NO) 50%Leader of 11 outcomes
Nobody (linked market resolves NO) 50%Forecasters
42
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
-23.5 pts
Market data
Updated 2 hours ago
StaleFeb 8, 25, 12:00 AM UTCJan 2, 28, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
This market is based on: @/ScottAlexander/in-2028-will-an-ai-be-able-to-gener
- If the linked Scott Alexander market resolves NO, this market resolves to 'Nobody'.
- If the linked market resolves YES, this market resolves based on which AI was used to trigger the resolution of the linked market.
- I reserve the right to edit options in the interest of making this market as predictively useful as possible.
- For example, to avoid overlap, if 'OpenAI' and 'Sam Altman' were both options I would edit 'Sam Altman' to say 'The first AI dev organization founded by Sam Altman after he leaves OpenAI'.
- I will generally try to edit the most recently added option in such a scenario, and I will perform the edit as soon as the issue is brought to my attention.
