Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 12:30 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecast
Fabiano Caruana 14.5%Leader of 13 outcomes
Fabiano Caruana 14.5%Forecasters
61
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 16 hours ago
StaleJan 2, 24, 11:36 PM UTCJan 1, 40, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
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PolymarketRules
Magnus Carlsen has been the number 1 ranked player by classical chess FIDE rating since July 2011.
- This question resolves to the first person who is not Magnus Carlsen to be rated number 1 on a FIDE monthly rating list.
- In case of unforseen circumstances (e.g. the creation of a competitor organization to FIDE), I will use a rating list that best includes all top players and all classical games.
- If you decide to add additional answers, please add only realistic people; I'll resolve troll answers to N/A. I will not bet in this market.
- Update 2025-03-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - If Magnus Carlsen doesn't play any classical chess for 12 consecutive calendar months, he will be removed from the FIDE rating lists, and the market will be resolved to the top player on the list at that time.