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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. Space
  3. Which of these rockets will reach orbit first?
Manifold Markets

Which of these rockets will reach orbit first?

CustomSpaceScienceTech3y
Manifold MarketsManifold MarketsNo KYC
Current community forecast
Manifold Markets
Nova 15.7%
Leader of 5 outcomes
Forecasters

5

Question type

multiple choice

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 9 days ago

Stale
Feb 13, 26, 8:11 AMJan 1, 30, 8:11 AM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Selected outcome

Nova16%

Rules

https://x.com/SciGuySpace/status/2022101432066093330?s=20

Manifold Markets
  • The market resolves to whichever rocket achieves orbital velocity first.
  • Resolution is determined by the first successful orbital insertion, defined as reaching a stable orbit around Earth with apogee and perigee both above 100 km altitude.
  • Neutron's first launch is targeted for 2026 (no earlier than Q1), Terran R is scheduled for the second half of 2026, Rocket 4 is planned for summer 2026, and Nova is under development at Cape Canaveral.
  • Resolution will be based on official announcements from the respective companies and confirmed by credible space industry sources (SpaceNews, NASASpaceflight, Space.com, or official company statements).
  • Rocket Lab's Neutron aims to reach orbit on its first flight, a challenging objective for new vehicle architectures.

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Active in these topics

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Rules

https://x.com/SciGuySpace/status/2022101432066093330?s=20

Manifold Markets
  • The market resolves to whichever rocket achieves orbital velocity first.
  • Resolution is determined by the first successful orbital insertion, defined as reaching a stable orbit around Earth with apogee and perigee both above 100 km altitude.
  • Neutron's first launch is targeted for 2026 (no earlier than Q1), Terran R is scheduled for the second half of 2026, Rocket 4 is planned for summer 2026, and Nova is under development at Cape Canaveral.
  • Resolution will be based on official announcements from the respective companies and confirmed by credible space industry sources (SpaceNews, NASASpaceflight, Space.com, or official company statements).
  • Rocket Lab's Neutron aims to reach orbit on its first flight, a challenging objective for new vehicle architectures.