Current implied probability
30 50%Leader of 5 outcomes
30 50%Market quality
22 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
—
Liquidity unknownMarket data
Updated 9 minutes ago
May 21, 26, 3:29 PM UTCMar 2, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
30 · 35 · 25 · 45 · 40.
This market will resolve to "YES" if AST SpaceMobile (NASDAQ:ASTS) reports a number of all BlueBird satellites in orbit greater than or equal to the number specified in the title in its Q4 2026 Earnings Release.
- Otherwise, it will resolve to "NO."
Primary resolution source is AST SpaceMobile's Q4 2026 Earnings Release, published on the company's Quarterly Results page at https://investors.ast-science.com/quarterly-results.
If the Q4 2026 Earnings Release explicitly states an aggregate BlueBird satellites in orbit figure, that figure resolves the market.
- If no aggregate is stated, the count is determined by enumerating all individually named BlueBird satellites that AST SpaceMobile has confirmed via "successful orbital launch" (or equivalent language) in any official press release or 8-K filing through the resolution timestamp, and has not subsequently announced as lost or de-orbited by 1 Jan 2027.
If AST SpaceMobile does not publish its Q4 2026 Earnings Release by 11:59 PM ET on 31 June, 2027, this market will resolve to "NO.”
Note: Satellites that AST SpaceMobile has described using exclusionary language do not count.
- For example, BlueBird 7 — which AST SpaceMobile described in its 19 April 2026 press release as having been "placed into a lower than planned orbit" with altitude "too low to sustain operations" and "will be de-orbited" — does not count.
- The same treatment applies to any future BlueBird satellite described in similar terms.
Note: The count includes Block 1 satellites (BlueBird 1 through BlueBird 5) and Block 2 satellites (BlueBird 6 onwards) and all upcoming satellites that AST SpaceMobile will confirm via "successful orbital launch" (or equivalent: "successfully deployed," "operating as expected," or by being included in AST SpaceMobile's stated total count of satellites in orbit) and has not subsequently been announced as lost, scheduled for de-orbit, placed in a non-operational or lower-than-planned orbit, declared a total loss, de-orbited, or removed from service.