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  1. Prediction Markets
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  3. SpaceX IPO: Officially added to S&P 500 in 2026?
SpaceX IPO: Officially added to S&P 500 in 2026?

SpaceX IPO: Officially added to S&P 500 in 2026?

1.5% (24h)EquitiesOne-OffTechSpaceCorporate Actions6mo
PolymarketPolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% fee
Current implied probability
Yes
Yes 9%-0.0%
Market quality

52 / 100

Medium quality
24h Volume

$350.1

Liquidity

$13.5K

Medium liquidity
Bid / Ask

8.0% / 9.0%

Spread

12.5%

Wide spread
Market data

Updated 1 minute ago

Jun 9, 26, 5:56 AMJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Selected outcome

Yes9%

Rules

The S&P 500 undergoes quarterly reconstitution on the third Friday of March, June, September, and December.

Polymarket
  • This market will resolve to "Yes" if S&P Global Inc. announces that SpaceX will be added to the S&P 500 index by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
  • An announcement from S&P will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the listed company has actually been added to the S&P 500 index by the resolution date.
  • The primary resolution source will be official announcements from S&P Global Inc.
  • (https://www.spglobal.com/en/press/press-release).

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Will SpaceX's valuation hit __ by June 30?

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SpaceX IPO day's closing market cap

$1.4K
<$750B: 0.3%Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS
SpaceX Closing Market Cap End of IPO Month

SpaceX Closing Market Cap End of IPO Month

$636.2
$2.0T-$2.5T: 49%PolymarketPOLYMARKET
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Will SpaceX outperform the S&P 500 over the 2 years following its IPO?

$149.3
Yes: 32.4%Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS

Active in these topics

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Rules

The S&P 500 undergoes quarterly reconstitution on the third Friday of March, June, September, and December.

Polymarket
  • This market will resolve to "Yes" if S&P Global Inc. announces that SpaceX will be added to the S&P 500 index by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
  • An announcement from S&P will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the listed company has actually been added to the S&P 500 index by the resolution date.
  • The primary resolution source will be official announcements from S&P Global Inc.
  • (https://www.spglobal.com/en/press/press-release).