Current community forecast
Other 32%Leader of 37 outcomes
Forecasters
17
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 4 hours ago
StaleMay 28, 25, 2:12 AM UTCDec 31, 30, 2:04 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the first Chinese crewed mission to land on the Moon include a woman?
Manifold MarketsWill a human from any nation other than the United States land on the Moon and successfully return by the end of 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill SpaceX land on the *MOON* by Dec 31st 2030?
Manifold MarketsHow many Starships will land on the Moon, before one lands on Mars?
Manifold MarketsWill Blue Origin land on the moon before SpaceX?
KalshiSpaceX Starship manned flight to successfully land on the moon by the end of 2026?
FutuurRules
I will continue add months after market creation until Other is not the largest option.
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to the specific month in which SpaceX's Starship Human Landing System (HLS) successfully lands on the Moon.
- The landing is considered successful when the Starship HLS completes a soft landing on the lunar surface, remains upright and sends a signal .The official confirmation of the landing will be sourced from reputable space agencies or organizations, such as NASA or SpaceX, and reported by major news outlets.
- The Starship HLS is a lunar lander variant of SpaceX's Starship spacecraft, developed under NASA's Artemis program to transport astronauts from lunar orbit to the Moon's surface and back.
- As of May 2025, the first crewed lunar landing using Starship HLS is scheduled for mid-2027 as part of the Artemis III mission.
