Current community forecast
>= 3 73.4%Leader of 4 outcomes
Forecasters
10
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 10 hours ago
StaleJul 1, 26, 4:25 AM UTCDec 31, 30, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will P vs NP be resolved after man lands on Mars?
Manifold MarketsWill P vs NP be resolved before man lands on Mars?
Manifold MarketsWill humans set foot on the Moon again before an unmanned SpaceX Starship lands on Mars?
Manifold MarketsTwo SpaceX Starships dock together by which date?
PolymarketWill two SpaceX Starships dock together before 2028?
KalshiNASA lands on the moon?
KalshiRules
By landing dates.
Open markets
TechKALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
- 90° or above+68.0pt95.2%
- 88° to 89°-23.0pt1%
- 84° to 85°-9.0pt1%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $682.4K
- 24h Vol
- $661.4K
KALSHIGuyana Amazon Warriors vs Antigua And Barbuda Falcons
- Guyana Amazon Warriors-3.0pt60.4%
- Antigua And Barbuda Falcons+3.0pt39.6%
- Total Vol
- $654.7K
- 24h Vol
- $626.1K
KALSHIWhere will it rain on Sep 8, 2026?
- New Orleans+43.0pt99%
- Houston+70.0pt99%
- Minneapolis+17.0pt99%
+19 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $504.6K
KALSHIHighest temperature in New York City on Sep 8, 2026?
- 80° to 81°+53.0pt95.2%
- 79° or below-2.0pt1%
- 82° to 83°-45.0pt1%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $72,500 or above+2.0pt99%
- $69,000 or above99%
- $69,500 or above98%
+47 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.3M
- 24h Vol
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
- 180-199+7.0pt34.3%
- 160-179+2.0pt23.8%
- 200-219-1.0pt19.1%
+23 more outcomes
- Elon Musk # tweets September 7 - September 9, 2026?
- BTC price on Sep 9, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- Highest temperature in Austin on Sep 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Miami on Sep 8, 2026?
- When will Apple release the iPhone 18?
- Which company has the best AI model end of September?
- Bitcoin price at the end of 2026
- Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by which date?
- When will Apple Inc. release the iPhone 18 Pro?
- Highest temperature in Chicago on Sep 8, 2026?
- Next James Bond actor?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for How many Starships will land on the Moon, before one lands on Mars??
- Manifold Markets prices >= 3 at 73% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does How many Starships will land on the Moon, before one lands on Mars? resolve?
- How many Starships will land on the Moon, before one lands on Mars? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2030.
- How is How many Starships will land on the Moon, before one lands on Mars? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: By landing dates.