Current community forecast
No 70.5%
Forecasters
6
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 9 hours ago
StaleAug 1, 26, 4:23 PM UTCFeb 22, 22, 9:22 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will P vs NP be resolved before man lands on Mars?
Manifold MarketsWill P vs NP be resolved after man lands on Mars?
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KalshiRules
resolves YES when P vs NP is resolved or NO when man lands on Mars, whichever comes first
- resolution of P vs NP is a proof or disproof of P≠NP accepted by the mathematical community
- man lands on Mars when a live human body is separated from the Mars surface only by like a solid thing, such as a spaceship or spacesuit (edit: or both of course, but touching each other)
- Close date updated to 2222-02-22 10:22 pm
- (Identical market to: source market)
Open markets
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- Anthropic+1.0pt89%
- OpenAI-1.8pt9%
- Google2%
+18 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $2.7M
- 24h Vol
- $121.9K
LIMITLESSSpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
- No56.5%
- Yes43.5%
- Total Vol
- $53.1K
- 24h Vol
- $53.1K
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic+0.5pt59.4%
- SpaceX-4.0pt38.5%
- OpenAI+0.1pt2.1%
+9 more outcomes
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028-2.0pt63%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-1.0pt51%
- Before May 1, 2027-1.0pt49%
+8 more outcomes
KALSHIHow many launches will SpaceX have in September?
- Above 8-6.0pt84%
- Above 9-21.0pt52%
- Above 10-16.0pt19%
+8 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETWill the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by which date?
- 2027-0.5pt67%
- June 30, 2027-0.5pt53%
- 2026+1.3pt6%
- Which company has the best AI model end of October?
- Third-best AI Lab end of September?
- Which company has the best AI Agent end of September?
- Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by which date?
- Will a new interstellar visitor be confirmed before 2027?
- Third-best AI Lab end of October?
- AI data center in space by which date?
- Which company has #1 AI model end of September? (Style Control On)
- Highest Grok score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will P vs NP be resolved before man lands on Mars??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 71% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will P vs NP be resolved before man lands on Mars? resolve?
- Will P vs NP be resolved before man lands on Mars? is scheduled to resolve on February 22, 2222.
- How is Will P vs NP be resolved before man lands on Mars? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: resolves YES when P vs NP is resolved or NO when man lands on Mars, whichever comes first