Will a human from any nation other than the United States land on the Moon and successfully return by the end of 2030?
One-OffSpace4y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
Yes 61.9%
Forecasters
26
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingNov 13, 23, 11:39 PM UTCJan 2, 31, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
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KalshiRules
Resolution Criteria: This question will be resolved as "Yes" if, by 11:59 PM (UTC) on December 31, 2030, at least one human being from any country (other than those who participated in the Apollo missions) has landed on the Moon and then returned safely to Earth.
- To wit, will any non-American land on the moon and return by the end of 2030?
- Clarification on 'Successfully Return' and Exclusion of Apollo Missions: For the question to resolve as "Yes," the astronaut(s) must complete a round trip, meaning they must land on the lunar surface and then physically return to Earth alive.
- This question specifically pertains to missions occurring after the Apollo program, which concluded in the 20th century.
- Verification Sources: The resolution will be based on official statements from the respective space agency or government, verified news reports, or live coverage.
- Caveat: If I wind down my activity on Manifold or become seriously ill, may resolve this as N/A early.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will a human from any nation other than the United States land on the Moon and successfully return by the end of 2030??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 62% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will a human from any nation other than the United States land on the Moon and successfully return by the end of 2030? resolve?
- Will a human from any nation other than the United States land on the Moon and successfully return by the end of 2030? is scheduled to resolve on January 2, 2031.
- How is Will a human from any nation other than the United States land on the Moon and successfully return by the end of 2030? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution Criteria: This question will be resolved as "Yes" if, by 11:59 PM (UTC) on December 31, 2030, at least one human being from any country (other than those who participated in the Apollo missions) has landed on the Moon and then returned safely to Earth.