Current community forecast
Yes 80.5%
Forecasters
8
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 8 hours ago
StaleNov 19, 23, 12:28 AM UTCJan 1, 41, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
Rules
Resolution Criteria: This question will be resolved as "Yes" if, by 11:59 PM (UTC) on December 31, 2040, at least one human being from any country (other than those who participated in the Apollo missions) has landed on the Moon and then returned safely to Earth.
- To wit, will any non-American land on the moon and return by the end of 2040?
- Clarification on 'Successfully Return' and Exclusion of Apollo Missions: For the question to resolve as "Yes," the astronaut(s) must complete a round trip, meaning they must land on the lunar surface and then physically return to Earth alive.
- This question specifically pertains to missions occurring after the Apollo program, which concluded in the 20th century.
- Verification Sources: The resolution will be based on official statements from the respective space agency or government, verified news reports, or live coverage.
- Caveat: If I wind down my activity on Manifold or become seriously ill, may resolve this as N/A early.
