This market resolved: Anthropic (89.9%)
Resolved: Oct 1, 2026, 4:25 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 1, 2026, 5:55 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Probability Timeline
OpenAI6.4%
Anthropic89.9%
Google0.5%
Meta0.9%
Moonshot0.5%
xAI (e.g., Grok)0.5%
Z.ai0.4%
DeepSeek0.4%
Other0.4%
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to the company that developed the #1 ranked model on the official Artificial Analysis LLM Leaderboard as of September 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM UTC.
- Primary Source: The Artificial Analysis LLM Leaderboard.
- Ranking Metric: The ranking will be determined by the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index (e.g., v4.1.1 or any updated version active at the time of resolution).
- Tie-breaker: In the event that multiple models from different companies share the exact same top Intelligence Index score, the model displayed higher on the leaderboard UI will be deemed the winner.
- If no UI ordering distinguishes them, the market will resolve to a split among the tied companies.