Which company has best AI model end of April 2025? (Chatbot Arena Leaderboard)
AIManifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: Google
Resolved: May 1, 2025, 4:03 AM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Current community forecastGoogle 99.8%Leader of 8 outcomes
Forecasters
296
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 197 days ago
StaleFeb 27, 25, 12:34 PMMay 1, 25, 3:59 AM
Probability Timeline
OpenAI0%
xAI0%
Anthropic0%
Google99.8%
Meta0%
Alibaba0%
DeepSeek0.2%
Other0%
99.8%
0.2%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Rules
Resolution is based on the chatbot arena LLM leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai), specifically the company with the highest Arena Score in the Overall category without filters (without style control or show deprecated), at the end of April 30, 2025 11:59PM ET.
- See also: @/Bayesian/which-company-has-best-ai-model-end
- @/Bayesian/which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-I0QsydsZuz
- @/Bayesian/which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-0CRdhqptRl
- @/Bayesian/which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-uIgZPlOt5d
- @/Bayesian/which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-A88UsyhdZz
Open markets
AI
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Feb 1, 2027+7.0pt96%
- Before Mar 1, 2027+1.0pt93%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-1.0pt92%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.5M
- 24h Vol
- $298.6K
GEMINIBTC price on August 21
- $73,000 or above98%
- $73,500 or above97.5%
- $61,000 or above97%
+36 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $168.1K
- 24h Vol
- $152.7K
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by __?
- December 31,+2.0pt89%
- October 31,+8.5pt82%
- October 15,-3.5pt50%
+4 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- ↑$1.1T+3.6pt100%
- ↑$1.0T+2.4pt100%
- ↑$1.25T-0.9pt97%
+10 more outcomes
POLYMARKETBest Chinese AI Company end of August?
- Alibaba-1.0pt95%
- Company A50%
- Other50%
+22 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+4.6pt68.6%
- Grok-2.1pt10.5%
- ChatGPT-2.8pt9.5%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $9.2M
- Best AI this week
- Next Mythos-Class Model released by which date?
- OpenAI’s Astra released by which date?
- In which month will Anthropic IPO?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Which company has best AI model end of April 2025? (Chatbot Arena Leaderboard)?
- Manifold Markets prices Google at 100% as of February 4, 2026.
- When does Which company has best AI model end of April 2025? (Chatbot Arena Leaderboard) resolve?
- Which company has best AI model end of April 2025? (Chatbot Arena Leaderboard) is scheduled to resolve on May 1, 2025.
- How is Which company has best AI model end of April 2025? (Chatbot Arena Leaderboard) settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution is based on the chatbot arena LLM leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai), specifically the company with the highest Arena Score in the Overall category without filters (without style control or show deprecated), at the end of April 30, 2025 11:59PM ET.