Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastStanford 26.9%Leader of 6 outcomes
Forecasters
8
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 4 hours ago
StaleMay 3, 26, 6:52 AM UTCFeb 16, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will an AI be capable of achieving a perfect score on the Putnam exam before 2027?
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Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to the institution that secures the 3rd place ranking in the official team competition for the 2025 William Lowell Putnam Mathematical Competition.
- The official results, as published by the Mathematical Association of America (MAA) on their website (https://maa.org/math-competitions/putnam), will be the final authority for resolution.
- If the official results list multiple institutions as tied for 3rd place, the market will resolve to a proportional payout or N/A based on the final, official standing documentation, unless a tie-breaking rule is specified by the MAA.
- If the competition is cancelled or no official results are released by December 31, 2026, the market will resolve N/A. The William Lowell Putnam Mathematical Competition is an annual contest for undergraduate college students in the United States and Canada.
Open markets
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+8.0pt56.5%
- 2027+3.5pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Total Vol
- $261.2K
- 24h Vol
- $186.6K
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,-1.0pt84%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $401K
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+4.4pt62.4%
- ChatGPT-1.2pt23.8%
- Grok-2.6pt5.9%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $10.6M
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-8.0pt63%
- 1490+-8.5pt54%
- 1500+-0.5pt28%
+2 more outcomes
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Which college will get 3rd place on the 2026 Putnam exam??
- Manifold Markets prices Stanford at 27% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Which college will get 3rd place on the 2026 Putnam exam? resolve?
- Which college will get 3rd place on the 2026 Putnam exam? is scheduled to resolve on February 16, 2027.
- How is Which college will get 3rd place on the 2026 Putnam exam? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria