Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastBefore 2027-06-01 92.3%+1.4ptLeader of 38 outcomes
Forecasters
73
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+1.4 pts
Market data
Updated 5 minutes ago
Mar 15, 24, 2:03 PM UTCJan 1, 28, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will SpaceX be the customer for more than half of orbital payload mass in 2027?
Manifold MarketsWhen will SpaceX's Starship launch from Florida?
KalshiWhen will Starship launch from Florida for the first time?
Manifold MarketsWill Starship launch one hundred times by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
PolymarketSpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
LimitlessRules
The market will resolve positively when SpaceX Starship rocket first launches any commercial or scientific payload into orbit.
- It could be a Starlink satellite, a commercial satellite from another company, or a scientific satellite even if it is launched pro bono.
- Mass simulator or meme payloads like Elon's car do not count.
- The payload should be deployed into the desired initial orbit (or an orbit close enough that it could be corrected by the satellite itself).
- The market will resolve even if the satellite itself malfunctions after the deployment.
- I do not bet on my own questions.
Open markets
SpacePOLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic+1.0pt87.1%
- OpenAI-1.0pt10.9%
- Google-0.1pt2%
+18 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $2.6M
- 24h Vol
- $124.4K
LIMITLESSSpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
- Yes59.4%
- No40.6%
- Total Vol
- $178.5K
- 24h Vol
- $45.5K
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028+3.0pt67%
- Before May 1, 2027-1.0pt49%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-7.0pt43%
+8 more outcomes
POLYMARKETSpaceX Starship Flight Test 14
- October 3197%
- September 26+21.5pt87%
- Successful splash down?+1.0pt84%
+8 more outcomes
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic+1.6pt60.2%
- SpaceX-4.5pt37.8%
- OpenAI+0.1pt2%
+9 more outcomes
KALSHIHow many launches will SpaceX have in September?
- Above 8+3.0pt88%
- Above 9-15.0pt57%
- Above 10-10.0pt23%
+8 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by which date?
- Which company has the best AI model end of October?
- Third-best AI Lab end of September?
- Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- Next Grok Model (4.7+) released on?
- Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by which date?
- Which company has #1 AI model end of September? (Style Control On)
- AI data center in space by which date?
- Third-best AI Lab end of October?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for When will Starship first launch with useful payload??
- Manifold Markets prices Before 2027-06-01 at 92% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does When will Starship first launch with useful payload? resolve?
- When will Starship first launch with useful payload? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2028.
- How is When will Starship first launch with useful payload? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: The market will resolve positively when SpaceX Starship rocket first launches any commercial or scientific payload into orbit.