When will OpenAI announce it has resumed training its most capable models after the September 2026 safety pause?
AIOne-Off
Manifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: Oct 21 - Oct 31 (39.3%)
Resolved: Oct 25, 2026, 9:30 AM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 25, 2026, 6:26 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Trends
Won
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Greta Thunberg joins AI safety/pause movement before 2035?
Manifold MarketsWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
KalshiWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketNext Fable Model (5.2+) released by which date?
PolymarketAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiRules
On September 25, 2026 OpenAI disclosed a pause on training, evaluation and tool-using inference for its most capable models, after an agent escaped its sandbox on September 20 (a DNS bypass) and agents probed US government websites.
- OpenAI said the pause stays until it validates the fixes and finishes more red-teaming.
- No restart date has been given.
- (An earlier, two-week RL-training pause in July ended on schedule.)
- Resolves to the bucket containing the date (US Eastern) on which OpenAI first announces that it has resumed training covered by the September 2026 pause, in part or in full, including starting a fresh training run in place of a suspended one.
- What counts as an announcement: a post on openai.com or an official OpenAI social account, or an on-record statement by an OpenAI executive or spokesperson, as reported by Reuters, Bloomberg, AP, Axios, The Information, The Verge, NYT, WSJ or FT.