Manifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedAwaiting verified resolution: 2026
Resolved: Oct 23, 2026, 4:05 AM
CoinRithm is waiting for provider-confirmed settlement before treating this market as resolved.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 23, 2026, 5:31 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Probability Timeline
20251%
202699%
20277.5%
20285.3%
Later/Never2.8%
2026Awaiting result
2025Awaiting result
2027Awaiting result
2028Awaiting result
Later/NeverAwaiting result
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PolymarketRules
Self-explanatory
- Update 2025-06-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Resolution Criteria:
- The market will resolve to the first year that a >90% score is reported on the benchmark.
- Subsequent years will resolve to no.
- Initialization:
- Probabilities are set by Manifold and may not necessarily add up to 100%.