Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 12:03 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastBefore 2027-04-01 52.3%Leader of 13 outcomes
Forecasters
31
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 6 hours ago
StaleMar 7, 24, 1:54 PM UTCMar 14, 28, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
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PolymarketRules
This market covers videos generated by AI from scratch (for instance from a text prompt), not AI transformations of an input video, which have existed for some time now.
- The market will resolve positively when a channel on YouTube or Twitch will stream at least 25 hours of realtime AI-generated video in the span of 48 hours.
- Traditional procedurally generated videos do not count.
- There should be consensus in the community that the video is AI-generated.
- The channel owner should declare it, and no plausible refutation should be published within a week after the broadcast.
- If the channel owner remains silent, I might resolve the market based on a poll or the comments.