When will a real money prediction market about OpenAI announcing AGI first stay above 90% for one month?
13.0 pts (24h)AI4moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNot before 2030 68.5%+13.0ptLeader of 4 outcomes
Forecasters
18
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+13.0 pts
Market data
Updated 30 minutes ago
Mar 25, 24, 3:57 AMJan 2, 27, 7:59 AM
Trends
Rules
Will a high-volume, real money prediction market expect that OpenAI is at least 90% likely to announce the creation of AGI before 2030?
- This market resolves to the period of time in which an eligible market first stays above 90%, not the period of time that the market predicts AGI to be announced.
- This means that if a real money market in 2025 expects OpenAI to announce AGI in 2027, this market resolves to the option "the named outcome"
- Eligible markets are listed at the bottom of this market description, and more markets will be added as they are created and receive similar amounts of real money trading volume.
- To resolve this Manifold market, an eligible real money market must have limit orders keeping the price above 90% for at least 30 days, with the displayed price never dropping below 90% for more than 24 continuous hours.
- Note: These criteria are still in draft form, and may be updated to better match the spirit of the question.
Open markets
AI
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Feb 1, 2027+7.0pt96%
- Before Mar 1, 2027+1.0pt93%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-1.0pt92%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.5M
- 24h Vol
- $298.6K
GEMINIBTC price on August 21
- $73,000 or above98%
- $73,500 or above97.5%
- $61,000 or above97%
+36 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $168.1K
- 24h Vol
- $152.7K
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by __?
- December 31,+2.0pt89%
- October 31,+8.5pt82%
- October 15,-3.5pt50%
+4 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- ↑$1.1T+3.6pt100%
- ↑$1.0T+2.4pt100%
- ↑$1.25T-0.9pt97%
+10 more outcomes
POLYMARKETBest Chinese AI Company end of August?
- Alibaba-1.0pt95%
- Company A50%
- Other50%
+22 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+4.6pt68.6%
- Grok-2.1pt10.5%
- ChatGPT-2.8pt9.5%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $9.2M
- Best AI this week
- Next Mythos-Class Model released by which date?
- OpenAI’s Astra released by which date?
- In which month will Anthropic IPO?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- BMW Championship Winner
- XRP price on August 21
- XRP price on August 31
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- BTC price on August 31
- Time's Person of the Year for 2026
- When will OpenAI release GPT-6?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for When will a real money prediction market about OpenAI announcing AGI first stay above 90% for one month??
- Manifold Markets prices Not before 2030 at 69% as of August 21, 2026.
- When does When will a real money prediction market about OpenAI announcing AGI first stay above 90% for one month? resolve?
- When will a real money prediction market about OpenAI announcing AGI first stay above 90% for one month? is scheduled to resolve on January 2, 2027.
- How is When will a real money prediction market about OpenAI announcing AGI first stay above 90% for one month? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Will a high-volume, real money prediction market expect that OpenAI is at least 90% likely to announce the creation of AGI before 2030?