Will the CFTC permit real-money prediction markets on the 2028 US Presidential Election?
RegulationOne-OffElectionPolitics2y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 4:28 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastYes 86.8%
Forecasters
38
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 8 hours ago
StaleApr 16, 24, 9:58 PM UTCJan 1, 29, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
Resolves YES if the CFTC gives their approval for any real-money prediction market on the outcome of the 2028 US Presidential Election (the market itself doesn't need to have launched).
- Resolves NO if no such markets exist by the date of the election.
