Data quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 6:50 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecast
No 55.8%
Forecasters
18
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 11 hours ago
StaleJun 23, 26, 5:31 PM UTCDec 31, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiRules
Resolves YES if, by 23:59 ET on Dec 31, 2027, Meta Platforms makes a real money prediction market product (the app reported by NYT as internally codenamed "Arena," or any successor/rebrand) publicly available to general users in at least one market, via official launch or public beta.
- Users should be able stake and win real money or real-money-equivalent value (cash, crypto, redeemable credits).
- Sweepstakes or promotional models count as long as they pay out real-money value.
- Pure play-money, points-only, or free-to-play versions with no cash-equivalent payout do not count.
- Waitlist, internal-only test or unreleased announcement does not count.
- Resolves NO otherwise.
