What will US federal government spending as a percent of GDP be in 2031?

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Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for What will US federal government spending as a percent of GDP be in 2031??

Manifold Markets prices No at 69.3% as of October 25, 2026.

When does What will US federal government spending as a percent of GDP be in 2031? resolve?

What will US federal government spending as a percent of GDP be in 2031? is scheduled to resolve on June 12, 2032.

How is What will US federal government spending as a percent of GDP be in 2031? settled?

Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FYONGDA188S

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POLYMARKET

Fed Decision in October?

• No change94.1%
• 25 bps increase+1.0pt5.9%
• 25 bps decrease0%

+2 more outcomes

Total Vol

$66.8M

24h Vol

$4.4M

POLYMARKET

How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?

• 2 (50 bps)+1.5pt72%
• 1 (25 bps)23%
• 3 (75 bps)-0.8pt5%

+3 more outcomes

POLYMARKET

Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)

• Hike–Pause–Hike+0.5pt74.3%
• Hike–Pause–Pause-0.5pt20.8%
• Hike–Hike–Hike-0.5pt2%

+6 more outcomes

POLYMARKET

US economic state at the end of 2026?

• Overheating+7.2pt98%
• Soft Landing-7.3pt2%
• Slack-0.7pt0%

+1 more outcomes

POLYMARKET

Another Fed rate hike in 2026?

• Yes76.2%
• No23.8%

Total Vol

$1.1M

24h Vol

$9.6K

KALSHI

CPI in October

• Above -0.1%+1.0pt98.5%
• Above 0.0%98.5%
• Above 0.1%89.5%

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