Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast≥90% 75.5%Leader of 8 outcomes
Forecasters
19
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+14.2 pts
Market data
Updated 16 hours ago
StaleJan 16, 26, 8:50 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
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PolymarketRules
This market matches Software Optimization: GSOBench from the AI 2026 Forecasting Survey by AI Digest.
- See other manifold questions here
- [image]Resolution criteria
- Resolves to the highest Hack-Adjusted Opt@1 score on the GSO leaderboard as of December 31, 2026.
- A task counts as solved if a single attempt achieves ≥95% of the human speedup AND passes all correctness tests.
- No retries or cherry-picking the best of multiple runs is allowed.