Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastOpus 59%+39.0ptLeader of 5 outcomes
Forecasters
3
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+39.0 pts
Market data
Updated 7 minutes ago
Sep 3, 26, 2:48 PMDec 31, 26, 2:45 PM
Trends
Rules
The current publicly accessible line-up of Claude is Fable 5.1, Opus 5, Sonnet 5, and Haiku 4.5, as seen on https://platform.claude.com/docs/en/about-claude/models/overview.
- Which tier will be the next to have a model publicly released? By publicly released, I mean Anthropic must announce the public release and the average American can access it just by making an account and spending money.
- If multiple models are released simultaneously, options will resolve to 100% times the proportion of the released models of each tier.
- If Anthropic "rereleases" an old model, I will either ignore that or resolve this N/A and create a new market.
- This market is a sequel to @/JoshSnider/what-tier-will-the-next-public-clau-NN6Q2llP8l , which resolved for Claude Fable 5.1
- [link preview]
Open markets
AI
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra released by which date?
- October 31+0.1pt99%
- September 30-0.7pt98%
- September 25-0.3pt98%
+8 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.2M
- 24h Vol
- $539.3K
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-3.2pt58.6%
- ChatGPT-1.2pt24%
- Grok+1.5pt7.7%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $10.1M
POLYMARKETGPT-6 released by which date?
- October 31,+9.2pt100%
- November 30,+6.8pt100%
- December 31,+5.5pt100%
+10 more outcomes
POLYMARKETOpenAI's Astra released on?
- September 4+34.9pt44%
- September 24+21.4pt23%
- September 17+21.1pt22%
+27 more outcomes
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude-10.0pt76.5%
- ChatGPT+6.0pt16.7%
- Gemini+2.0pt2.9%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $173.4K
KALSHIWhen will OpenAI release GPT-6?
- Before Sep 16, 2026+14.0pt99%
- Before Oct 1, 2026+9.0pt99%
- Before Nov 1, 2026+6.0pt99%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $703K
- Which week will OpenAI release Astra?
- When will OpenAI release Astra?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- Anthropic IPO by which date?
- AI capability growth this year?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by September 30?
- OpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- When will any company achieve AGI?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for What tier will the next Claude release be??
- Manifold Markets prices Opus at 59% as of September 4, 2026.
- When does What tier will the next Claude release be? resolve?
- What tier will the next Claude release be? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is What tier will the next Claude release be? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: The current publicly accessible line-up of Claude is Fable 5.1, Opus 5, Sonnet 5, and Haiku 4.5, as seen on https://platform.claude.com/docs/en/about-claude/models/overview.