What are the probabilities of these AI outcomes (X-risk, dystopias, utopias, in-between outcomes, status quo outcomes)?
AI
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
A. Death by paperclips, eternal torment of all humans by AI, or similar unalignment catastrophe. 38.6%Leader of 9 outcomes
Forecasters
63
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 10 hours ago
StaleMar 25, 23, 10:00 AM UTCJan 1, 01, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
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KalshiRules
Buy/sell these outcomes to the probabilities you consider appropriate.
- Mar 25, 6:05am: What are the probabilities of these AI outcomes? → What are the probabilities of these AI outcomes (X-risk, dystopias, utopias, in-between outcomes, status quo outcomes)?