Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastPerplexity 37.6%Leader of 5 outcomes
Forecasters
5
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 14 hours ago
StaleNov 3, 25, 2:52 PM UTCDec 31, 35, 2:48 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Which gaming companies will shut down by end 2030?
Manifold MarketsOut of these AI researchers, who is the smartest?
Manifold MarketsWhat are the probabilities of these AI outcomes (X-risk, dystopias, utopias, in-between outcomes, status quo outcomes)?
Manifold MarketsWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by September 30?
PolymarketWill OpenAI's valuation hit __ by September 30?
PolymarketAnthropic’s valuation end of October 2026?
PolymarketRules
Resolution Criteria
- This market resolves to whichever company among OpenAI, Anthropic, Perplexity, or xAI ceases operations first due to bankruptcy, insolvency, or permanent shutdown.
- Resolution will be determined by official announcements from the company, SEC filings, or major news reports from established financial media outlets (Bloomberg, Reuters, CNBC, Financial Times).
- If multiple companies shut down simultaneously, the market resolves to the one that filed for bankruptcy or made the shutdown announcement first.
- OpenAI closed a $40 billion Series F funding round at a $300 billion valuation in April 2025, and achieved a $500B valuation milestone in October 2025.
- Anthropic raised $13 billion in Series F funding as of September 2025. xAI closed a $10 billion debt and equity fundraise in July 2025.
Open markets
RegulationPOLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No-0.6pt92%
- Yes+0.6pt8%
- Total Vol
- $22M
- 24h Vol
- $235.2K
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-6.0pt80%
- December 15,-9.5pt73%
- November 30,-22.5pt55%
+7 more outcomes
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+3.0pt90%
- Before Mar 1, 2027+1.0pt87%
- Before Feb 1, 2027+2.0pt86%
+9 more outcomes
KALSHIWho will successfully take over Warner Brothers?
- Paramount+16.0pt96.9%
- None before July 2027-16.0pt2.1%
- Netflix-2.0pt1%
- Total Vol
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028-2.0pt68%
- Before May 1, 2027+6.0pt50%
- Before Apr 1, 2027+1.0pt46%
+8 more outcomes
KALSHIWill the Clarity Act become law?
- Before Oct 1, 2027+7.0pt25.9%
- Before Jan 1, 2028-3.0pt23.1%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-4.0pt15.7%
+7 more outcomes
- What will Anthropic's IPO valuation be?
- Will California authorize an alternative wage or other qualifying relief from goat-herder wage and overtime obligations before Oct 1, 2026?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by September 30?
- Florida State vs Alabama
- Which companies will officially announce an IPO this year?
- Georgia vs Arkansas
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by September 30?
- Will any state enact a data center moratorium by December 31?
- Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?
- LSU vs Ole Miss
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Which of these AI companies will shut down first??
- Manifold Markets prices Perplexity at 38% as of September 19, 2026.
- When does Which of these AI companies will shut down first? resolve?
- Which of these AI companies will shut down first? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2035.
- How is Which of these AI companies will shut down first? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution Criteria